Private home prices edge up 0.5% q-o-q in 3Q2023: URA flash estimates
Private home prices increased by 0.5% in 3Q2023 according to flash estimates released by URA on Oct 2, a slight rebound from 2Q2023’s 0.2% decline. The decline, which came off the cooling measures announced in April, marked the first drop in private residential property prices after 12 consecutive quarters of growth. However, the growth remains significantly lower than the average quarterly price increase of 2.1% recorded in 2022.
Activity in the housing market was weaker in August and September due to the lunar seventh month, according to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty. Private residential sale transaction volume fell 15% q-o-q to 4,569 in 3Q2023, which is also down 26% y-o-y.
Non-landed properties saw a 2.1% q-o-q rise in prices in 3Q2023, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the previous quarter. Homes in the Outside Central Region (OCR) led the way with prices growing 5.1% q-o-q, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) with prices increasing 2.3% q-o-q, primarily driven by new launches such as the 598-unit Lentor Hills Residences.
In contrast, condo prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell 2.6% q-o-q, following the 0.1% decline recorded in the previous quarter, due to prohibitive additional buyer’s stamp duty rates for investors and foreigners, and the recent money-laundering investigation.
The landed private property market moderated in 3Q2023 as well, with prices sliding 4.9% q-o-q, breaking an eight-quarter streak of increases. Despite this decline, Wong Xian Yang, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at Cushman & Wakefield, believes landing home prices won’t stay down for long due to tight supply and high demand. Year-to-date, landed home prices are up 1.8%.
The outlook for the private residential market remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates and cooling measures, with unemployment rates still low and resale HDB prices continuing to rise. Cushman & Wakefield are standing by their full-year growth forecast of 2% to 5%.
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Chia Siew Chuin, head of residential research, research and consultancy at JLL, believes local demand for private housing will stay healthy. Price-sensitivity will remain a factor however, with potential new project launches in October and November including Watten House, The Hill @ one-north, Hillock Green in Lentor Central and J’Den, the redevelopment of Jcube in Jurong East. Private home prices have grown 3.6% over the first three quarters of 2023 and are expected to stay relatively stable in the next few quarters.